I've been mulling over Web 2.0 technologies for some time now and, in particular, the rise of the so called social networking sites such as MySpace and FaceBook.
Many people contend that the explosion of interest in these sites, which has seen them enter the public conscience, is a portent of things to come. There is no denying that most of these sites are inhabited by young people in their late teens or early twenties, but it doesn't seem to have caught on with people much older than that.
The BBC recently reported that 18-34 year old women have become the most dominant group online in the United Kingdom, accounting for some 18% of the total online population. I suspect that many of these women (particularly those towards the younger end of that spectrum) have MySpace or FaceBook sites.
It has been recognised for some time that interactive web sites have considerably more traffic than static, presentation sites. Many sites are "read-once, never-revisit". The power of the so-called Web 2.0 sites is that they do build faithful audiences by allowing participation.
The 18-21 age group have a lot of time and they choose to spend it using the Internet. I suspect that once careers start to kick in that their use of such sites will move down their list of priorities.
Those that support the hype suggest that the young people that inhabit social networking sites will continue to use them as they grow older. I don't doubt that, but what I think the proponents miss is that their use will change.
I believe that over time we will see sites along the lines of a hybrid FriendsReunited/MySpace that will allow friends to keep track of each other. The subtlety is that their use will change from being very frequent to pretty periodic, rather like the American trend of sending out a yearly newsletter with Christmas cards.
Whatever happens, it will be interesting to see how these sites develop.
However, one thought that has occurred to me is the considerable sensation that might occur over a future prime minister or other prominent individual when a tabloid newspaper gets hold of their old MySpace pages! The Tony Blair's and David Cameron's of the future might find it much more difficult to keep the lid on their student activities!